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Island Biogeography.

Balance immigration and extinction while distinguishing richness from turnover.

Interactive experimentintuitiveField note ·
INTERACTIVE EXPERIMENT / P11

Island Biogeography

Balance immigration and extinction while distinguishing richness from turnover.

TEST THE MECHANISM

A mainland pool contains 100 possible species. Immigration declines as the island fills; extinction rises with richness. Rates are teaching assumptions per model time unit.

010
010
0.050.0100.0
Immigration–extinction richness balance · Scale 0.0 to 100.0 · 0 model time unitsSpecies richness
Current richness index
50.00
Equilibrium richness
66.67
Turnover at equilibrium
2.00

Stable richness does not imply unchanged species identities. The model tracks expected richness, not particular species, area effects, speciation or an actual island forecast.

The model tracks expected richness, not species identities, speciation, habitat differences or a calibrated island forecast. Both zero rates preserve the initial richness.

THE SHORT VERSION

Island Biogeography, explained.

Equilibrium island biogeography describes species richness as a balance of immigration and local extinction from a larger source pool.

01 / THE MECHANISM

Why it happens

A pool of one hundred species supplies immigration I(1−S/100), while extinction is ES/100. The richness equilibrium is 100I/(I+E) when either rate is positive, with nonzero turnover possible there.

Equilibrium island biogeography describes species richness as a balance of immigration and local extinction from a larger source pool.

Read the result

Richness is an expected count index. The equilibrium turnover rate can remain positive even when the richness trajectory has stopped changing visibly.

02 / FOLLOW IT THROUGH

A worked example

Stable richness with ongoing replacement

  1. Set maximum immigration six and maximum extinction three with a source pool of one hundred.

  2. Run successive time blocks toward equilibrium richness about 66.67.

  3. Inspect turnover two species per model time unit at equilibrium without inferring which species arrive or leave.

OPTIONAL DEEPER DETAILGo deeper: inside the model

Inside this model

A pool of one hundred species supplies immigration I(1−S/100), while extinction is ES/100. The richness equilibrium is 100I/(I+E) when either rate is positive, with nonzero turnover possible there.

03 / BEYOND THE EXPERIMENT

Where this idea is useful

A practical use

Avoid interpreting a stable species count as evidence that the same species remain present.

CHECK YOUR INTUITION

A common misconception

THE TEMPTING CONCLUSION

“An unchanged species count proves that species identities are unchanged.”

THE MORE USEFUL DISTINCTION

Immigration and extinction can balance in number while replacing identities. This model reports richness and expected turnover separately.

What this explanation leaves out

  • The model tracks expected richness, not species identities, speciation, habitat differences or a calibrated island forecast. Both zero rates preserve the initial richness.
ONE MORE QUESTION

Why does the zero-rate case not display a unique equilibrium?

If neither immigration nor extinction occurs, every initial richness remains unchanged; division by zero would invent a unique answer.

TAKE THE IDEA WITH YOU

Would a stable total hide substantial replacement within the system?

Associated thinkers

Associated withRobert MacArthur ↗
Associated withEdward O. Wilson ↗

Associations marked provisional are awaiting source review.

Further reading

Explore the original research or the teaching reference behind this experiment.